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By Hannah Lang
(Reuters) – Could Bitcoin's record rally this year just be beginning?
That's the question cryptocurrency traders are asking ahead of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, a change in the token's underlying blockchain technology aimed at reducing the speed at which new Bitcoins are created.
Previous Bitcoin halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020 were followed by massive price increases: a year after the Bitcoin halving in May 2020, Bitcoin rose by more than 545%.
According to data platform CoinGecko, the next halving is currently scheduled for April 20th. But this time the market is divided on whether Bitcoin could experience another meteoric rise.
Halving involves halving the amount of Bitcoin available to miners as rewards, making mining less profitable and slowing the production of new tokens. Some Bitcoin enthusiasts say Bitcoin's increasing scarcity gives it additional value.
In a report on April 8, analysts at Bitfinex predicted that Bitcoin price would rise about 160% in the 12 to 14 months following this year's halving, which they said would take Bitcoin to an all-time high of more than $150,000 could drive.
“This current cycle stands out from all previous cycles as the Bitcoin price has already reached a new all-time high – even before the halving. This anomaly could be interpreted as a bullish indicator, but it also brings a certain level of uncertainty to the market dynamics,” the report said.
David Mercer (NASDAQ:), CEO of LMAX Group, which operates an institutional crypto exchange, is among the skeptics: “The adult market view is this: in 2012, 2016, 2020, the halving was preceded by a massive bull run.” The Evangelist so will tell you that 2024 will be the same. We believe that it will not be so.
The reason? Some analysts say the impact of the halving may already be priced into Bitcoin's recent rise. hit an all-time high of $73,803.25 in March and is up more than 60% since Jan. 1 as investors cheered and awaited the entry of new U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). institutional money in the asset class.
The Bitcoin ETFs “spurred tremendous interest and net new inflows into Bitcoin prior to the halving event, whereas we have seen in the past that price levels immediately after the halving event brought these new inflows,” said Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at the crypto -Exchange Kraken.
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Halvings occur approximately every four years, although some analysts say it is difficult to rely on historical precedent. They say a combination of factors outside of the halving may have contributed to Bitcoin's 2020 rally, including looser monetary policy and the fact that retail investors are spending their excess money on cryptocurrencies.
“A sample size of three [halvings] is not necessarily large enough to be conclusive. It is also important to note that other bullish events in the industry contributed to the gains,” researchers at crypto analytics firm Kaiko said in a note.
Still others say the ETFs could be just one of several catalysts that could support Bitcoin's price in the year after the halving. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates this year, which could give a boost to risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
“There is a simultaneous influx of new money into the asset class, eventually through the ETF… then there is the Fed indicating that it plans to ease monetary policy later this year,” said Ravi Doshi, head of markets at FalconX, a crypto prime broker.
“Assuming inflation numbers remain subdued, you have a recipe for significantly higher prices.”
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